Prediction of durability and reliability of high-pressure structural elements. Part 2. Computational statistical modeling

The evaluation of reliability and durability of high-pressure explosive structures is an important technical problem. In Part 1, a method for predicting durability of structures was proposed. The method implies the numerical simulation of a three-dimensional stress-strain state (SSS) of structures taking into account the chemical durability criterion. This paper deals with a method of calculation of durability and reliability of complex high-pressure structural elements under random steady-state loads imposed on the structure during its operation taking into account statistical straggling of elastic strength properties of structural materials. The method is a combination of the numerical statistical simulation (the Monte Carlo method) of the SSS of a structure with random characteristics of structural materials and a damage accumulation model under steady-state random loading. The damage accumulation is calculated using the chemical durability criterion. This criterion allows carrying out calculations of damage accumulation and durability under cyclic and static loads. To simulate the three-dimensional behavior of structures subject to creep, an iteration technique based on the finite element method is developed. Analytical expressions for the variances of the damage parameter and durability distribution density are obtained to reduce the amount of calculations required for evaluating the reliability. As an example of the application of this method, the durability and reliability of a high-pressure three-layer structure with welded pipes is calculated. Such structures can be used in prospective nuclear power plants.

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